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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: PaulG on February 07, 2018, 10:56:44 AM



Title: What a trip
Post by: PaulG on February 07, 2018, 10:56:44 AM
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4624/40136749701_2f975d6b77_k.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/249KkkT)


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: FJmonkey on February 07, 2018, 11:34:27 AM
I like the "Don't Panic" touch.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: ZOA NOM on February 07, 2018, 12:33:06 PM
This was absolutely thrilling to watch. It looked like a video in reverse when the boosters touched down on their pads. Made me excited about space again.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: red on February 07, 2018, 12:34:02 PM
.
What a gigantic waste!  

He could have sent the lamest possible scientific package to Mars, and we probably still would have learned more than we know now.  There is a lot of real, significant science that could be done with that much payload, and Elon would have been beating them back with sticks, if he had offered that free payload capacity to scientists.

Choices like that could piss off the Pope!
  . . .   :ireful:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Charlie-brm on February 07, 2018, 12:49:39 PM
I've got nothing happening on screen but a static image of a guy at the wheel of a car, as part of a photo gallery. Is this supposed to play a video? Flash encoded?


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: FJmonkey on February 07, 2018, 01:37:23 PM
Here is a link to a vid, not much going on that the still picture does not capture.

https://www.space.com/39612-spacex-starman-tesla-roadster-live-views.html (https://www.space.com/39612-spacex-starman-tesla-roadster-live-views.html)


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: pdxfj on February 07, 2018, 02:19:49 PM
Uhh...

You do realize this was a TEST flight?  It was the first launch of their heavy lift rocket system and no one knew if it was going to work.  It was 50/50 if things would go as planned or blow up during the flight.

They needed weight in the rocket for the test and most of the time companies use blocks of concrete, scrap steel, etc.  Musk decided to have a little style and fun with it.

So no, it wasn't a waste in the slightest.  They were able to learn a lot from the flight, and even if it hadn't been successful they would still have learned things.



Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: FJmonkey on February 07, 2018, 02:33:30 PM
I think Starman should have a red shirt, he was the expendable crew member. Well the Roadster was red and it was expendable as well.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: red on February 07, 2018, 02:51:51 PM
Uhh...  You do realize this was a TEST flight?  It was the first launch of their heavy lift rocket system and no one knew if it was going to work.  It was 50/50 if things would go as planned or blow up during the flight.
They needed weight in the rocket for the test and most of the time companies use blocks of concrete, scrap steel, etc.  Musk decided to have a little style and fun with it.
pdxfj,

News Flash!!  They are ALL test flights; the rocket rangers change some things for almost every flight, trying to do better than the last launch.
I will say it again, Elon would have been beating them back with sticks if he had offered free payload space to Mars, to the real explorers on this planet.

Great launch, outstanding booster recovery (THAT'S how, folks!), respectable orbital altitude, and a total waste of payload capacity.  Sorry, but a Spade is a Spade.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: pdxfj on February 07, 2018, 03:01:10 PM
My apologies Red,

It's obvious I'm too fucking stupid to post in this thread.  I will continue to refrain from contributing to this message board in the future.





Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: ZOA NOM on February 07, 2018, 03:46:35 PM
Wow, that went South in a hurry... I feel much better about sharing my political views now.  :)


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on February 07, 2018, 04:16:56 PM
I see both points.

1) Had the first flight of the Falcon Heavy failed, the loss of a $100k Tesla is no big deal. The loss of a $100m scientific package would be big news...how could anyone be so stupid to put expensive gear into an untested rocket?

2) Now that the maiden flight of the Falcon Heavy is successful, why is it wasted on a publicity stunt?

My answer is: Because he is Elon Musk.
His company designed and built the Falcon Heavy (and Kudos to him) he paid for the rocket, and the cost to launch, so he can put whatever fucking thing in there he wants.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: PaulG on February 07, 2018, 04:24:01 PM
Holy shit Batman!  Good thing I didn't post a pic of my basement. Talk about a waste of space!

 Hey Red... why so angry?  Every first launch from Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, Space Shuttle had no functioning payload.  Simple reason is they tend to explode. And who would insure those odds?  Yes they have insurance for everything that goes into space, otherwise no one would do it.

As far as Mars goes, that's the biggest waste of money there is. The trillions flushed down the toilet for that should be spent here to make this planet less angry. We'll  just fuck up Mars worse than the earth and a lot faster too. IMO.

Besides think of what fun aliens will have with it https://youtu.be/h2sI8vIJQY8 (https://youtu.be/h2sI8vIJQY8)



Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: red on February 07, 2018, 10:56:07 PM
My apologies Red,
It's obvious I'm too fucking stupid to post in this thread.  I will continue to refrain from contributing to this message board in the future.
pdxfj,

Nobody said that.  No apology needed, except from me.  Please do not take anything here personally.  My apologies.

The guy just pissed me off with his showboating.  That may be his right, it's his money and all, but I think he could have done better at the payload end.
He sure did good on those boosters, no doubt.  Oh well, nobody is perfect. 


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on February 08, 2018, 12:07:13 AM
....The guy just pissed me off with his showboating.....

^^^ Boy 'o boy, I sure agree with you there....

I have Tesla stock and I'm getting a tad cranky after the Q4 reports showing with *another* yearly loss.
 ($2 billion in 2017) :dash1:

I realize Space X is a different company, but we sure could use those guys in Reno Nevada to straighten out the Tesla Model 3 production woes. I know, I know, apples to oranges, etc.

Still trying to be patient....but getting a bit antsy. My heart says stay...but my brain says sell.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Bill_Rockoff on February 08, 2018, 06:12:03 AM
It made me think of "Heavy Metal."

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/DWMPe3wF9jQ/hqdefault.jpg)

"How do you like my panel gaps NOW?"

The car thing was a stunt, but there was never going to be a functioning payload on a test-flight. That stuff is too hard to build, and when it blows up on the launch pad, you can't always just go pull another satellite off the shelf for the next launch. (Side note: Paul, Ducati Scrambler guy from the fall Tellico rally in 2015, designs scientific test equipment for the ISS.)

Pat, I'd hold onto that Tesla stock. The guy isn't in the "electric car" business, the guy is in the "energy storage and management" business, and Tesla is where Ford was 100 years ago, getting ready to mass-produce things we never thought we'd need 20 years ago. SpaceX is doing things in a similar way, taking something daunting and special and turning it into something repeatable that can become a commodity. My only worry is that "running a company that does good things" is different from "running a good company," and by all accounts the workload at SpaceX is not conducive to long-term employment. (Side note: Bruce, Moto Guzzi guy from the spring Boone rally in 2017, interviewed with SpaceX last year and said the people he met told him that working there was basically what everyone did instead of "hobbies.")





Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: rlucas on February 08, 2018, 07:23:34 AM
I like the "Don't Panic" touch.

Rumor has it there's a towel in the glovebox as well.



Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: FJ1100mjk on February 08, 2018, 08:52:32 AM
My apologies Red,

It's obvious I'm too fucking stupid to post in this thread.  I will continue to refrain from contributing to this message board in the future.

Yep, probably the best tack to take.

Leave all comments and advice on all FJ, and everything else in this world, to the Gand Poobahs, the self-imposed resident experts, and guardians of righteousness here. Less grief.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: ZOA NOM on February 08, 2018, 09:40:11 AM
 :flag_of_truce:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Charlie-brm on February 08, 2018, 12:54:22 PM
Wow, that went South in a hurry... I feel much better about sharing my political views now.  :)

LOL. OK, I found that funny. Thanks for the smile.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 17, 2019, 05:47:59 PM
I have Tesla stock and I'm getting a tad cranky after the Q4 reports showing with *another* yearly loss.
 ($2 billion in 2017) :dash1:

I realize Space X is a different company, but we sure could use those guys in Reno Nevada to straighten out the Tesla Model 3 production woes. I know, I know, apples to oranges, etc.

Still trying to be patient....but getting a bit antsy. My heart says stay...but my brain says sell.

Pat, I'd hold onto that Tesla stock. The guy isn't in the "electric car" business, the guy is in the "energy storage and management" business, and Tesla is where Ford was 100 years ago, getting ready to mass-produce things we never thought we'd need 20 years ago.

I realize that this thread is almost 2 years old, but I just wanted to say....

******* Thank you Bill :good: *************

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/17/if-you-invested-5000-in-teslas-ipo-this-is-how-muc.aspx (https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/17/if-you-invested-5000-in-teslas-ipo-this-is-how-muc.aspx)

A partial quote from the above article:

“....Tesla's stock went public at just $17 back on June 29, 2010. On the first day of trading, its stock shot up over 40% to $23.89. Yet even if you were a public investor who didn't get in on the pre-trading IPO price, you still would have made a small fortune.”

“Today, Tesla's stock sits at $347, just over 20 times its IPO price and over 14 times the price at the end of the first day of trading. That's a total return of 1,941% and 1,322%, respectively. If you had invested $5,000 and been lucky enough to get in at the IPO price of $17, your Tesla stock would be worth $102,050 today. Over nine years and four months, that's an average annual return of 38.3%.”


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on November 18, 2019, 01:29:17 PM
I hope for your sake Pat that the bubble doesn't burst while you're still holding stocks.

Whatever it is that Musk has got it must be magic - he isn't financing things with "his" money, he's financing it with investors money. I really don't know how a business which has a major division losing billions of $ per year (with no real signs of change, other than year after year of wildly inaccurate forecasts) can see it's stocks skyrocketing, year after year.

Someone (Governemental) has too much invested to let this fail, despite the fact that it's technology and developments are going far slower than every business forecast they've made.

Musk and Tesla may well be in the energy storage and management business, but so far, by any normal measure of performance, there are big issues in that group of businesses which, if they occurred in any other business, would have investors and the SEC demanding senior heads to roll.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Motofun on November 18, 2019, 03:18:33 PM
While I'm no fan of Elon Musk...if investors are willing to put up their money for him to spend, so be it.  They must have faith that he will turn it around and they will be rewarded.  For their sake, I hope so.  I'm not so confident, I might be wrong but I won't be impacted if his bubble bursts.  No balls no blue chips is how the saying goes....


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 18, 2019, 04:56:38 PM
I was ready to sell....believe me, I know what you’re saying...but
1) the early production woes were settled and the Tesla Model 3 became a best seller (just ask BMW)
2) Tesla’s expanding it’s Gigafactories in China and Germany.
And as Bill predicted....
3)  Powerwalls are set become very popular once our local electrical utility, Southern Calif. Edison converts all residential accounts over to Time of Use rates. (TOU) This TOU rate will be incredibly expensive here in the lower desert. Folks must air condition their buildings in the summer afternoons when rates are the highest.
These Powerwalls will allow the loads to be time shifted. They can be charged late at night durning the low rates and discharged back into the house service durning the peak rates. At the projected $0.38 per kWh for on peak power and $0.08 for off peak power, the ROI for a full time home owner here in the desert is under 4 years. We all know about batteries on PV solar systems, but this Powerwall product can work and be beneficial without a PV system.

I think I’ll hold on to the stock a bit longer.....


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: ZOA NOM on November 18, 2019, 08:51:46 PM
So, I suppose we need to ramp up the coal production? Or maybe cover the whole landscape with those ridiculous wind generators? I'l be glad when all the hype over electric whatevers is finally faced with the reality of their "carbon footprint". Yeah, yeah, they're so sexy with their "instant torque", and they can pull just about anything up to 60 mph, but so what? MAGA


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 18, 2019, 09:27:19 PM
Yea, EV’s in China with coal powered generating plants, that could be an issue.
Ev’s In Europe with coal plants, less of an issue....coal is on its way out.
Ev’s in the USA with coal plants, even less of an issue, coal can not compete with natural gas.

Specifically EV’s here in Calif with coal plants (3%) is almost a non issue.
https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html
Calif. will be coal free in 2020.

Tesla Powerwall with coal plants is not applicable. The battery merely stores power, shifting TOU.

Mr. MAGA invest in “beautiful clean coal” and see how that works out for you....
...and Fuck President Bone Spurs, he’s a coward.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on November 19, 2019, 01:56:29 AM
Coal plants won't be the issue with future Battery power storage - with things like the Powerwall, the minerals needed to make the storage units/batteries will be.

There already isn't enough cobalt going to be available shortly for current battery volume production, so now they're looking and vacuuming up huge swathes of the sea floor to get at "easy to mine" cobalt nodules - now that's an easy and environmentally sustainable/friendly operation, isn't it !!!

This issue has come up without building vast numbers of power walls, I can only imagine what damage to our ecosystem will happen if they become "popular" - at the moment, over here, wind farms aren't the big issue with locals, it's the "solar farms" that are generating adverse public feeling - covering open land with thousands of hectares of solar panels is absolutely ridiculous, especially when the environmentalists are blaming covering the ground with impervious concrete and asphalt, for the flooding that we've been experiencing.

These fields of panels are also stopping rainwater from landing on the ground, except where it's being "directed" in huge, unnatural quantities.

All of this "short-term" thinking is doing as much damage to our plant and ecosystem as the evil they are supposed to replacing - imagine that some people think  that it's perfectly acceptable and environmentally responsible to have a battery electric car for local journeys and the hire another car (or even fly), for longer journeys - so lets have a battery electric car AND fossil fuel powered car......that really makes sense.

Unfortunately, the rush to be "seen" to be making progress (to keep investors happy) is likely pushing us prematurely down the route of underdeveloped options like these that will in the long run come back to haunt us.

Our govt have already committed to eliminating any new fossil fuel powered vehicles on our roads in the near future (we are a long way "ahead" (if that's what you can call it) of the USA in that respect), and yet there isn't a viable alternative for many of the population, and how the hell are we going to transport goods (without trucks that can carry cargo over long distances with minimal "downtime"). There's a lot more proper thought needs to go into this subject to make sure we have viable alternatives to the internal combustion engine for motive power, and not just the short term "marketing" alternatives we're being pedalled now.

I'd rather our Govt's fund some proper research into alternative motive power and take it away from those (like EM) who are only looking to "make a buck" out of the whole process. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of electric motors and electric propulsion, as long as it gives us the solution to switch completely to it, and not just a half-assed make-shift option of using electricity part of the time and returning to fossil fuel when electric vehicles can't meet the needs of the average Joe/Jane


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on November 19, 2019, 08:40:34 AM
Looking at that table you've linked Pat, Coal isn't the only "dirty" fuel used on Power supply for California - if you add in Natural Gas, Oil and Other fossil fuel power generation, around 50% of California's electricity still comes from "dirty" fossil fuel sources - all pumping out masses of CO2 etc - that's where we need to get creative and invest in cleaning up power supply !

All those "zero emission" cars and bikes are really running on fossil fuels, making plenty of emissions generating the electricity, they're just being produced away from the vehicle. The smugness of those purporting to drive "Zero Emission" vehicles astounds me.

Lower emission, yes; but Zero emission, not on your nelly !


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 19, 2019, 12:04:14 PM
I only linked coal into the conversation because that’s what Mr MAGA seems to be concerned with...
The critics of EV’s seem to keep harping on a perceived fact that all the EV’s are powered from coal plants.
Yea sure, natural gas is a fossil fuel, but it is light years cleaner than coal. (and more efficient)
Oh yea, BTW for the fans of President Bone Spurs, there is no such thing as “clean coal”. Everyone knows that, correct? CO2 sequestering is a myth.
The critics of EV’s do not mention natural gas electrical generation for a very good reason.
Taking the total emissions into account, an EV powered by a natural gas electrical plant is still much cleaner than the best ICE available today or in the perceived future.
Yes, future centralized electrical generation will evolve to cleaner sources, but the real advancement will come from distributed power generation, as the new high efficiency multi-junction PV panels come on line.

Re: Materials: We are in the infant stage of battery technology and development, materials will evolve.

My family has 2 cars. Most families have 2 cars. Most of my driving is within 30 miles of my home.
My wife bless her heart, will run her car down to past empty on fuel. She just does not like to stop and get gas, she says it smells bad, she is too busy or most likely late for where she is going.
I get into her car and ask, “Honey, how long has the fuel light been on?”  
She would say, “I think it came on yesterday...”  aaaagh.
Now this is my dilemma, knowing what I know about her, do I really think she will take the time to plug in her EV for charging? Not on her life....

Here’s a solution: https://www.pluglesspower.com/learn/2nd-generation-plugless/ (https://www.pluglesspower.com/learn/2nd-generation-plugless/)



Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on November 19, 2019, 01:07:58 PM
Yeah, we live in different societies Pat, and vastly different cultures when it comes to cars - but still, 2 years on and that Plugless charging system is still unheard of over here - over-promising and under-delivering ? or am i just living in the wrong country :-.

The 2-car family is still not the norm here and because of people travelling/relocating for work - as well as the working culture here - a lot of people simply couldn't manage life today with a Battery Electric vehicle.

My wife recently had a job which required her to regularly drive up to 400 miles in a day, visiting 7-8 customers.

If we're visiting family, we almost always have to travel 400-500 miles in a single day at the weekend, spending maybe 2-3 hours with the family (aged, dementia, really gets comfort from seeing us) before returning home.

Travelling to and from any of the major airports to transport/collect family members (which we do regularly), is simply too risky to entertain in anything other than a mega expensive Tesla (due to the range and our travelling timescales), which in some cases would only just make the journey on a full charge (you certainly don't want to park in an airport for the time it takes to charge a car......expensive parking is an understatement).

We simply couldn't make those journeys with a Battery Car, without a drastic change to our lives and journey planning - and without paying a significant premium  over the cost of an ICE car.

Because of our society/culture/geography/lifestyle here in the UK, battery electric cars are having a really tough time getting a foothold - if they were reasonably and competitively priced in the first place, then a lot of London and other major urban city drivers could probably plump for electric, but for the time being, for the rest of us, they're a pipe dream (I tested hydrogen fuel cell dumper trucks in quarries in the 1990/early 2000's and they were awesome - I really took a shine to electric power back then....instant torque, quiet running, smoothness......just wish the technology had moved forward more across the board to make electric vehicles of all sorts more attainable/practical.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 19, 2019, 01:17:19 PM
Dean, wow, you do cover some miles. I completely understand why an EV is not right for you.
If I only had 1 car to rely on, an EV would not be it (not yet) perhaps a hybrid?
Some kind of 50mpg gutless wonder....naaaa


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on November 19, 2019, 04:59:21 PM
Yeah, 40k-50k Miles per year is not unusual, when I was working full time it was generally around 50k miles per year.

In business, the majority of people I've worked with have been 30k miles-plus per year drivers and when you think that's in a country with a population density of around 10 times that of the USA, you can understand that sometimes it's slow going (especially on major routes with our trucks being physically restricted to 56 mph max speeds). So adding in long "refuelling/recharging" times as a double disaster.

My employer won an infrastructure services contract a few years back and committed, at the clients request, to try using battery electric vans for our mobile inspectors. This was in a limited area, but because of the daily mileage, 24hr use and long charging times, we needed twice as many vans as would need with diesel engined vans, and our inspectors had to make extra trips back to the depots to swap vehicles. Those vans were an operational and financial disaster - it's all very well electricity being cheap, but when your vehicles are having to spend 6-8 hours of the day stationary (when they're supposed to be in use pretty much around the clock), and more time in unproductive return journeys, the cost of the extra vehicles and waste of inspectors time (meaning we needed more staff as well as more vans !) made the decision to go back to diesel an absolute no-brainier for the client.

On your point regarding a gutless wonder doing 50mpg though - you need to come over here and try my Volvo V70 diesel station wagon - 240bhp and 500Nm of torque mean it's not that gutless and over its 174,000 miles so far, it's averaged 44.8mpg (that's UK gallons though).

From a performance and economy perspective, the US fascination with big capacity, gasoline and silly automatic gearboxes (that seem to downshift ever time there's a 1% gradient in the road) seems to be robbing drivers of fuel economy and relaxing torquey engines  :sarcastic:

But, then again a good electric car with a decent range (450-500 miles minimum) and fast charging (10 mins from 10% - to 100%) would be my ultimate family car - fabulous torque, quiet and smooth.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 19, 2019, 05:44:13 PM
.....But, then again a good electric car with a decent range (450-500 miles minimum) and fast charging (10 mins from 10% - to 100%) would be my ultimate family car - fabulous torque, quiet and smooth.

Battery energy density is getting better and costs are going down, so the EV range will soon be there
(https://www.counterpointresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/1-1-1024x541.png)

Your requested charging rate: 10-100% in 10 minutes? Yikes!
That’s a hard one, especially with the new solid state batteries.
Pumping that much energy into a battery in that short of time...without an active cooling system....
Boggles my mind.......
How about 10-80% in 30 minutes?  That last 20% to get to 100% full charge takes the longest time and generates the most heat.

Currently the best you’re going to do is a special DC 400kW charge rate which at 800 volts DC pumps in 500 amps into your battery pack. Stressful as hell.
This gives you a range of 23 miles (37km) per minute of charging, so a 10 minute charge will give you only 230 miles. Is that enough to get you home?

Things will get better....


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on November 19, 2019, 06:26:37 PM
30 minutes to recharge is no good, unless you can do it at a very "convenient" location (i.e. at one of your destinations, where you PLAN on being stationary for 30 mins anyway) - otherwise it just eats up your day, standing around waiting.

Sitting on a gas pump for 30 minutes would cause untold misery in fuel stations (unless there were a lot more pumps than there are right now). But,  I can't see that, at electric charging points unless they go mad with digging holes and laying cables so that there at least 3 times as many charging points as there currently are gas pumps, at each filling station, journey times won't be again heavily impacted.

The minute to minute practicalities of moving everyone over the battery electric vehicles are the things no one who's promoting them wants to talk about - all of that new infrastructure costs big $ and someone's going to have to pay for it - and you can bet it won't be the electric car makers  :biggrin:

All I'm wanting is for that industry to sort out a viable solution for the masses, and make it affordable, before they convince governments to just outright ban ICE powered vehicles.

It seems like almost 10 years ago, the first Nissan Leaf's were the "future" with the promise of dramatic improvements in the near future to range, and yet over 10 years of dramatic improvements, they've managed to get the range up from about 80 miles to less than 150 miles - that's not dramatic progress in my book, that's very slow progress. Let's hope the pace of change picks up soon  :biggrin:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 19, 2019, 06:37:34 PM
Agreed, the devil’s in the details.

500 amps at 800 volts DC freaks me the hell out...can you imagine what the electrical utility is thinking?

Hmmm, ok we have a commercial customer who wants to put in 12 EV charge stations with each station needing 500 amps of service capacity.....that’s just one customer, there are 6 more standing in line behind him. How do you plan and design your grid for that?

Holy crap.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on November 19, 2019, 07:22:04 PM
Agreed, the devil’s in the details.

500 amps at 800 volts DC freaks me the hell out...can you imagine what the electrical utility is thinking?

Hmmm, ok we have a commercial customer who wants to put in 12 EV charge stations with each station needing 500 amps of service capacity.....that’s just one customer, there are 6 more standing in line behind him. How do you plan and design your grid for that?

Holy crap.

Yep, you've got it Pat - and we have Political Parties now putting in their 2019 Election Manifesto's that they're going to effectively ban ICE powered vehicles from our roads by 2030 !!!!!!

How the hell they think we're going to survive, let alone be competitive in the global markets with that type of policy aim is utterly beyond me - they're living in cloud cuckoo land on the promises of the EV manufacturers that "everything will be fine"  :sarcastic: :sarcastic:

But then again, maybe I'm just being a simpleton and luddite


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 19, 2019, 08:08:17 PM
You sure about that Dean?
 I’ve heard that they plan on stopping the sale of new ICE vehicles in 2030.
Different than an outright ban.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Sparky84 on November 19, 2019, 09:29:36 PM
How do you plan and design your grid for that?

Holy crap.
Do it Now preferably.

Same with blocks of housing units, no one has thought these things through.
The supply into even recent ones won’t have capacity, let alone the grid.
Who pays for you to charge it at work, extra costs for the business?


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 19, 2019, 10:02:44 PM
...Who pays for you to charge it at work, extra costs for the business?
Some businesses are proud to offer free EV Charging to their employees, but that is the exception, not the rule. It’s good PR for them and perhaps a recruiting tool.
 The most commonly used commercial public EV chargers are level 2 chargers are 240volt single phase and they take credit cards.
While electricity costs vary, the average cost of electricity in California is about 15¢ per kilowatt hour (kWh). At this price point, charging a Nissan Leaf’s 40kWh battery with a 150–mile range would cost about 4¢ per mile (or about $6 to fully charge). With this 30amp 240volt charger (7kW) will take 6 hours to fully charge. Plenty of time to plug in on arrival and be fully charged at the end of your work shift.
If you charge your Leaf at home at night durning the off peak rates, your cost will be only $3 for that 150 mile range. Meaning, if you have to use a public charger it’s gonna cost you double from what you can charge it up at home.
Still $6 per 150 miles is less than 1/2 the cost of a 40mpg ICE when fuel is $4 per gallon. ($15 for 150 miles)
Off peak home charging @ $3 per 150 miles is even a better deal.
....Only if the boss lady remembers to plug in the bloody cord.

The level 3 chargers are 480 volt 3 phase and the only company to use those chargers (that I know) is Tesla on their Supercharger stations. I do not know the price for charging at a Tesla station.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Sparky84 on November 19, 2019, 11:17:35 PM
The most commonly used commercial public EV chargers are level 2 chargers are 240volt single phase and they take credit cards.
While electricity costs vary, the average cost of electricity in California is about 15¢ per kilowatt hour (kWh). At this price point, charging a Nissan Leaf’s 40kWh battery with a 150–mile range would cost about 4¢ per mile (or about $6 to fully charge). With this 30amp 240volt charger (7kW) will take 6 hours to fully charge. Plenty of time to plug in on arrival and be fully charged at the end of your work shift.
Must be good to live in the Lucky country, my cost for electricity is 31c (aud) per kWh, off peak is 13c.
So still probably cheaper than fuel but good bye to holidays on the road.



Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 19, 2019, 11:37:48 PM
Electric rates vary here in Calif with the highest rates in the Investor Owned Utilities (IOU) and the lowest rates are in the traditional publicly owned utilities.
The electrical rates in California’s IOU’s are the highest in the nation.
That’s ok, pain is a great motivation to invest in PV solar and/or batteries.

They want to shut my power off when the wind blows? Watch this...




Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Sparky84 on November 19, 2019, 11:45:43 PM
traditional public utilities.

What are those?  :lol:
Our Government sold those to the highest bidder (Chinese) and then expect them to adhere to govt rulings on what they should be doing and how much they should charge  :lol:
They are even shutting power stations down so they then have a supply demand situation and can charge more.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 20, 2019, 12:40:23 AM
China makes their own rules. Screw them, turn the tables and buy their cheap ass imported Chinese PV panels and put them on your roof. I bet you could get them for around 50c AUD per watt.
Stop paying your hard earned money for your government’s betrayal.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Motofun on November 20, 2019, 07:06:08 AM
Me?  I love me some ICE!
Love it in my scotch.
Love it on the border!
And love it in my vehicles!   :lol:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 20, 2019, 09:07:39 AM
Kookaloo :good:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on November 20, 2019, 07:25:00 PM
You sure about that Dean?
 I’ve heard that they plan on stopping the sale of new ICE vehicles in 2030.
Different than an outright ban.

The latest "cunning plan" (as Baldrick would say) announced by one party is that our Road Transport System will have to be carbon neutral by 2030 - so whilst that isn't announcing an outright ban, its effectively saying that we can't have ICE vehicles on our roads (as we don't have the "resource" available to balance/offset the carbon output).

This is the build-up to our General Election Pat, with each party announcing plans to out-do the others on issues that they "think" (or what the media tell them) will get them more votes. Luckily, the "carbon neutral by 2030" party don't have a snowballs chance in California of getting in......but unfortunately, one of the other main contenders might just try and trump that idea !!! :Facepalm:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 20, 2019, 08:44:15 PM
My granddaughters lovingly refer to me as Papa petrol head. They sneer at classic muscle cars, sneer! They say the old cars smell funny and are too loud. They cover their ears when I warm up my FJ.

We are doomed.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Motofun on November 21, 2019, 05:52:28 AM
There may be hope...My 4 yo grandson climbs up on my bikes, grabs the twist grip and Vroom Vrooms as loud as he can.   :yahoo:
He also watches all the races on TV with me when he is staying over.  He sits there enthralled, which is quite a feat for 4 year old.  My daughter is quite concerned!  :good2:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: rlucas on November 21, 2019, 07:03:25 AM

We are doomed.


...now get off my lawn.



Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Bill_Rockoff on November 21, 2019, 03:15:55 PM
Pat, I hope you're diversified and invested for the (relative) long-haul. An industry with long lead-time can have good years in the middle of a long downhill run, or off years in the middle of a climb. And any company can have good or bad quarters as they take turns leading or losing the lead of an industry in ascendance.

You know who was shitting in tall cotton 25 years ago? MCI. Man, telecom was a huge big deal back then, the long-distance market was just de-regulated, and MCI was a frontrunner 25 years ago. If you had told MCI management "you guys are a telecom company, and in two dozen years everyone will have their own portable phone. Some people will have two, one for work and one for personal. Their CHILDREN will each have one. Computers will telecommunicate too, and those will be portable. How does that make you feel about your company's future?" they would have celebrated with even more booze and cocaine than they already celebrated with every day. (Which, I have it on good authority, was a fuckin' LOT of booze and cocaine.) There's a pretty robust telecom industry, but those guys are nowhere.

Did you ever use cassettes? Were you a Maxell guy or a TDK guy? How are their sales now?

So whether or not you believe electric cars, and/or electric energy storage, and/or end-user-level electric energy production, are markets that have a future, and whether or not you believe any one particular company has a better long-term outlook than any of its competitors, you want to make sure you are not all-in on MCI or Maxell. 

When you invest in a company, there are some decisions to make about whether or not you want your money to support (even indirectly, like buying shares in a publicly traded stock) what that company is and does. If your dad started smoking in WWII and died of lung cancer when you were a kid, you may not want to buy R J Reynolds stock even if they're paying an 8% dividend and growing 5% a year. "Screw those guys, I hope they go out of business, and I don't want to tie my fortune to theirs. In fact, screw that whole industry, not just RJR, I'm not investing in Phillip Morris either."

But you also gotta get PAID, and that means that you probably wouldn't have wanted to invest in Piaggio stock.

If belief in the product was all it took to make a good investment, I'd have $30,000 worth of Motus parked in my garage and at least that much invested in their firm. And I'd be double-screwed.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 21, 2019, 03:34:31 PM
Bill, well crap, funny you should say that...I was going to sell some of my Tesla stock and buy a Motus....

I got a chance to ride a MST-R for a day and I really liked it... I fit well on the bike.

Point taken about diversification.

Cheers

Pat


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Bill_Rockoff on November 21, 2019, 05:27:00 PM
I used to work 10 miles from them, and what's not to love about a sport-touring bike powered by an engine that's basically half a Katech V8? I still kick myself for not even going by their place on a lunch break. I LOVE the idea about everything they're doing.

(I also would have loved to have met them in person. And I would have loved to have seen the bike in person, because maybe it's much better looking in person than in photos, like a C7 Corvette is. Or maybe I could have said the right thing that would have helped them turn it around, like "See that Ducati? It  is half the power and one-third the usefulness of your bikes, and is in every objective way a much stupider motorcycle. The new version costs $20,000 and there's a line for them. You could make yours that pretty for a lot less money than they could make theirs as good a motorcycle as yours. MAKE YOURS THAT PRETTY. Don't get an engineer to do it, we all think plaid shirts go perfectly well with striped pants. Get a design person to do it, or just put BMW K75 parts on yours, or something.")

They should have had all the sales Indian and Victory have had over the last five years. THEY MADE THE BEST MOTORCYCLE.

But that's not enough to make it a good investment.

Tesla stock, on the other hand... Even if you don't care about (or actively dislike) electric cars, 1) that company is not just about cars, they are also about electrical energy storage, and 2) there's a huge share of the car market that sells to people who either DO like electric cars, or they happen to like THESE PARTICULAR cars either because they're electric or because they're kinda neat looking, or they don't care about cars, they just wanna get where they're going. But mostly 3) you don't have to like electric cars, you just have to like money, and believe that Elon will make his company (and your part of it) more valuable next year than it is now.

Of course, you are roughly my age, so at some point in the next 10 years you will want to ditch the roller-coaster ride and find something that pays you dividends. Ford is currently paying nearly 6.9% right now, with a share price that is basically where it was 10 years ago, and 30 years ago. This would seem like a great idea except they just gave up on the car-making part of their business to focus on trucks, and no matter how much you like trucks you have to wonder "is making those things a great idea for the next 30 years, or does it make them more like Motus, where they build this thing I like but not nearly enough of them? Will they pay me 6.9% for five years and then go to zero, like GM did ten years ago?"



Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: ZOA NOM on November 21, 2019, 09:50:04 PM
Take a look at Ilika, Pat. Interesting technology ahead. The guy in this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0nA8CfxBqA) claims 2025 will be the beginning of something pretty incredible. Still can't stand electrics tho.   :drinks:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 22, 2019, 12:27:54 AM
Thanks Rick, that does look encouraging! Yea, lithium ion is just a temporary place holder for sure.
China has been busy buying up all the lithium reserves, leave it up to a Texan to put the screws to them.
“We don’t need your stinking lithium...we got Sodium...from the ocean” “Bitches”
You gotta love those Texans.

LOL Classic


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 22, 2019, 01:06:19 AM
Bill...perhaps you are right, I should diversify. If I sell 80 shares of TSLA I could have this as an investment...

https://www.cycletrader.com/listing/2018-Motus-MST-R-123358195 (https://www.cycletrader.com/listing/2018-Motus-MST-R-123358195)
(https://cdn1.cycletrader.com/v1/media/5dc10384fbb3d61bf1204195.jpg?width=1024&height=768&quality=70)

Think of all the money I’ll save with those hydraulic lifters, never needing a valve adjustment.

When these 2018 MST-R’s are gone, they’re gone.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on November 22, 2019, 01:16:31 AM
What kind of Honda is that Pat, a VFGL sports tourer  :sarcastic: :sarcastic: :sarcastic: :sarcastic:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 22, 2019, 01:23:58 AM
Dean, what do you know about the Motus MST-R’s? 180hp and 126 ft/lbs torque. That bike boogied.
It would pull the wings of the V4 ST Honda.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on November 22, 2019, 04:37:52 AM
LOL Pat, I’m very familiar with Motus  :good2:  I was just being a bit facetious as the photo has the bike parked under a Honda dealership sign   :sarcastic: :sarcastic: :sarcastic:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 22, 2019, 09:29:38 AM
Oh....Ok, gotcha :good2:
I am a bit leery on spending $28k on a bike that’s out of production.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: FJ_Hooligan on November 22, 2019, 07:13:17 PM
I am a bit leery on spending $28k on a bike that’s out of production.

Says the guy that's probably spent at least that much on his FJs over the years.   :-)


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on November 22, 2019, 07:41:06 PM
Yea, good point....


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on November 25, 2019, 02:50:37 PM
But the FJ is good looking   :biggrin: :biggrin:

As good as the Motus is as a motorcycle functionally, it's definitely "fugly"  :biggrin:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on February 04, 2020, 01:30:39 PM
I have Tesla stock and I'm getting a tad cranky after the Q4 reports showing with *another* yearly loss.
 ($2 billion in 2017) :dash1:

Still trying to be patient....but getting a bit antsy. My heart says stay...but my brain says sell.

Pat, I'd hold onto that Tesla stock. The guy isn't in the "electric car" business, the guy is in the "energy storage and management" business, and Tesla is where Ford was 100 years ago.....

Holy shit.....THANK YOU BILL !


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on February 04, 2020, 02:15:18 PM
Market analysts are beginning to fear that the Tesla bubble is going to burst - one prediction being that stock will be trading 40% lower than it is today, in 12 months time.

The CNBC comment is that they're expecting Tesla stocks to get "clobbered".

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/tesla-could-be-a-pure-speculative-stock-bubble.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/tesla-could-be-a-pure-speculative-stock-bubble.html)

Personally, I can't see a logical business reason why Tesla hasn't become bankrupt by now. It continues to report massive losses and yet its stock price rises. I think there's a speculation that the Govt has "invested" so much (not just money) into Tesla and it's aims, that it will be too embarrassing to let it fail. It's energy storage business is performing about as badly as its car business, so I don't see that being the magical saviour in the 3-5 years.

The one difference between Ford (and GM etc) and Tesla, is that their terrible financial performances resulted in tanked share/stock values, whereas Tesla's keep going higher every time their financial performances worsen!! Perhaps the SEC should look into why Tesla is being propped up so much and if that is actually a "fair" business practice.

Over here, if a business with a market dominant position was being "helped" to survive (despite massive continuous losses (and no real sight of a turnaround)) by being given favourable financial treatments that weren't available to its competitors, then that business would targeted for being involved in "anti-competitive business practices" and criminal charges could ensue.

But, this is a business founded on "Climate Change", so no-one will dare challenge it, for fear of being heralded as a Luddite, or a Trumpton !


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on February 04, 2020, 02:25:55 PM
I don’t know about the U.K. but I can say that over here in the USA the gas and oil industries have been government supported thru subsidies from day one....

Dean, I do agree with you about the Tesla stock being over valued..... this is crazy.
Perhaps the investors see the writing on the wall about EV’s, along with the expanding EU market from the  construction of the third Tesla Giga factory outside of Berlin?
Speaking of expansion, the Shanghai factory seems to be humming along nicely....


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on February 04, 2020, 02:52:21 PM
Most of the financial press reporting is pointing the finger at "short selling", or a "short squeeze" as the main reason for the stock values rises, rather than any belief in financial performance. They speculate that investors can't afford to "get out" but that if, or when, the bubble bursts, it could be catastrophic for all investors.

I'm not a stock market person, but the references to the Bitcoin situation keep coming through thick and fast, and despite the new factories and everything else, sales growth in 2019 was essentially flat - at a time where it should be moving moving forward in leaps and bounds - and remember, China is no longer the panacea for new sales that it was a couple of years ago.

I'm not sure what I would do in your situation Pat, but I know my wife would have my arm twisted right up behind my back right now, saying sell, sell, sell, before it falls.

She's always been the pessimist though- I've been the chancer  :biggrin:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on February 04, 2020, 02:56:19 PM
I don’t know about the U.K. but I can say that over here in the USA the gas and oil industries have been government supported thru subsidies from day one....

Dean, I do agree with you about the Tesla stock being over valued..... this is crazy.
Perhaps the investors see the writing on the wall about EV’s, along with the expanding EU market from the  construction of the third Tesla Giga factory outside of Berlin?
Speaking of expansion, the Shanghai factory seems to be humming along nicely....

I'm not sure, but I think the differences in "support" are linked to keeping Tesla (the dominant player in a market) in its dominant position, against its competitors - which is different to supporting an entire industry through large scale, cross industry "support" to numerous players, which doesn't maintain an unfair dominant position for one market player.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on February 04, 2020, 03:36:21 PM
I'm not sure, but I think the differences in "support" are linked to keeping Tesla (the dominant player in a market) in its dominant position, against its competitors - which is different to supporting an entire industry through large scale, cross industry "support" to numerous players, which doesn't maintain an unfair dominant position for one market player.

I’m not aware that Tesla receives targeted support, the type that is exclusive only to Tesla.
I’m aware of general EV industry support, and US EV industry support, but nothing manufacturer specific....Tesla, GM and Ford will all take equal advantage to this type of support...not just Tesla.

I am aware of special property tax incentives the State of Nevada granted Tesla for building Gigafactory #1 in Reno. Is this ^^ what you mean?
 If not, do you have an example?


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Bill_Rockoff on February 04, 2020, 03:46:00 PM
Today, I stumbled across the only near-term Tesla investment downside that seems at all likely to me.

I posted earlier in this thread that Tesla is a front-runner in a developing industry, and that they could be the equivalent of Ford 100 years ago. (A lifetime of ever-increasing up-side.)  

But, it could also be that Tesla is the equivalent of Research In Motion (the Blackberry people) 10 years ago. (Half a retirement of ever-increasing up-side, followed by half a retirement of eating cat food.)

RIM was a real pioneer and they positively OWNED an exciting new space, and their device's name 'Blackberry' was the de facto slang for "smart-phone" the way Sony's 'Walkman' was slang for "portable music device" before Apple's 'iPod' became slang for "portable music device." It was even acknowledged how addictive the device was; they used to call them "Crackberries."

And RIM's stock price showed that, rising from $25 per share in Feb 2006 to $45 a year after that, and then nearly tripling again during that same year - to $130 or so later in 2007. 2008 was a roller coaster through the first half ("Uh-oh, $90! Yay, $145!") before dropping below $39 that fall, spasming around throughout 2009 and 2010, and then dropping from $70 to $16 during 2011, and then to $7 the following summer. And except for a hopeful little jump to $15 for a couple months, it has zombie-shuffled along between $5 and $11 since then and it's six bucks today.

So, if Tesla is striking off in a bold new direction that everyone follows, they are an industry leader - and you can monetize that. But if Tesla is striking off in a bold new direction and everybody goes off in another direction, Tesla is sitting out there by itself in the wilderness - and you can't monetize that. "Don't follow the beaten path, forge your own trail" is crappy advice for trains.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on February 04, 2020, 04:01:27 PM
I don’t see the EV industry shifting course off of Tesla’s path. The only possible challenge I see comes from Hydrogen fuel cells, and I don’t see that happening. To quote Elon, “Fuel cells are a stupid choice for vehicles”.
Fuel cells are only a distant possibility in long range trucking applications.

Currently Billions of research dollars are being spent on battery technology.
Battery energy densities are improving yearly.
Battery recycling will occur. Lithium will be phased out in favor of cheaper, more sustainable materials.
 The first one with a 1kWh battery weighing 1 kilogram...wins, and wins big.

At this time, I just don’t (or maybe can’t?) see an alternative to carbon free personal transportation, other than battery powered EV’s.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on February 04, 2020, 05:48:57 PM
I don't have any specifics Pat that I know of in the USA, but there has been a lot of speculation in the press of Environmental Policies being driven to support Battery Vehicle Technology, much more than Hybrid or Hydrogen - and also "blind eyes" being turned in the case of some of the Tesla autonomous "accidents", which it has been purported would have resulted in recalls, safety notices, fines, lawsuits and bans, if the vehicles had been petrol/diesel vehicles.

This is only speculation (I've no idea if there's real truth in it, but that's normal these days with "media" reports) and as Tesla are a really minor "bit-player" over here, they get very little press, so we don't get to see a lot about them, unless we look.

It's interesting that you say Hydrogen Fuel Cells are only a distant possibility in long range trucking applications - we have taxi firms here making the news because they're increasing their fleet sizes of their Fuel Cell cars and moving away from hybrids. Personally, I wouldn't rule anything out and I do have a fear that the way our Govt's are going, they're nailing all of their future options to one mast, before they even know if that one mast can hold the sail.

Our current electricity infrastructure, we are told, can't support a massive uptake in battery charging for BEV's - neither in generation power, nor in distribution - without MASSIVE investment. This means making a national/global investment now in a service for something that currently is not viable as a sole means of transport for many people and battery technology that is apparently moving forward at such a pace that no-one where it will be in 2 years, never mind 5 - and you're already aware of the $ Billions spent on battery technology now and how much more will be spent over the next few years - will the investment tap run dry before the solutions are viable ?

It's a real Catch 22 !!!

I'm totally ready for electric powered vehicles, as soon as they can enable me to "function" normally - and by normally, I mean travelling +400 miles in a day without needing a long "recharge" stop, or having to change my arrangements to cater my stops around charging times.

Where I see Tesla falling down here right now is that every Tesla car driver I know, uses it as a "showpiece" vehicle. These people choose them as "company" cars to take advantages of tax allowances not available for petrol/diesel cars....but they only use the Tesla's for short journeys and to "impress" with their "Green" credentials- they all have a second car, powered by petrol/diesel, which they use for long distance business and private travel. In my mind, this is the absolute worst scenario, both environmentally and financially and until Tesla can provide a car for the "average" man (as opposed to an executive toy), their sales won't increase here to substantiate the companies valuation..

The analogy to Blackberry, is a new one to me, but I can see the links.

I never thought I'd say this, but in a way, I'm glad I don't have a tidy sum of money that could be available to me to spend, sat in Tesla stock tight now - I'd be so confused about what to do I'd likely have a heart attack.....hold/sell/hold/sell/buy more ?????


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Bill_Rockoff on February 04, 2020, 08:33:42 PM
If the industry starts coming up with a different solution, like “inductive charging infrastructure buried in the roadway so you can power the motor / charge while you drive between cities,” then the front runners who spent all their development capital building dedicated stationary charging stations and cars that are meant to hopscotch from one of those to the next are gonna be out there by themselves. Kind of like the phone guys that stuck with that mechanical keypad.

Seriously, if we can build an infrastructure that drills holes, pumps up oil, refines it,  and then carries it around and stations it on street corners world-wide in sufficient quantities to let us go wherever we want whenever we want, you can’t  tell me it’s not possible to do it with electrical energy, which we have been distributing since the 1880s.

In the meantime, tesla sold more cars in the USA than every other manufacturer’s electric cars added together. More electric cars were sold in the USA last year than manual transmission cars. They can’t do it all - not yet. And even when they can, they will probably not be satisfying in the way a nice internal combustion engine is.

But my only two experiences with a harley motor (sportster 1200, buell s2t) we’re not made any better by the motor. In fact, the motor was the part of each of those experiences that was the most disappointing. An electric cruiser or an electric trail bike would be a lot more fun than the weak-sauce hardly or the noisy smoky 2-stroke RM of my experiences.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on February 04, 2020, 08:40:02 PM
Dean, I saw this today about UK’s future plans:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/britain-ban-sale-new-gas-diesel-hybrid-cars-2035-n1129616 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/britain-ban-sale-new-gas-diesel-hybrid-cars-2035-n1129616)

It looks like Tesla will be ready with a 400 mile range sooner, rather than later..
https://www.engadget.com/2020/01/30/tesla-model-s-400-mile-range/ (https://www.engadget.com/2020/01/30/tesla-model-s-400-mile-range/)

Excepting the bare bones basic Model 3, all the other current crop of Tesla cars are too rich for my blood.

 Watch the VW group introduce a true EV Volkswagen. Things will get interesting when real competition enters the picture.

Bill, yea, I hear you.... Did you ever read Robert Heinlein’s “The Roads Must Roll”?  You grok?







Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on February 05, 2020, 01:27:03 AM
I'm with you Bill  - I've ridden Oset BEV off road bikes and would rather have one of them than our Honda CRF - but I'm not going to spend $5k yet on one because I regularly out-ride the range of those bikes.

It's great to use them around an off-road centre where, when the one you're riding runs low one power, you can just return back to the "yard" and swap it for another fully charged one, but that's not very practical for trail riding or exploring a bit further afield.

I also understand/agree about the infrastructure, it's just that the current one has been built up over 100 years, but what is being proposed here means that we'll need a similar scale of network building up over 10 years - and you're right as far as I'm also thinking, in that BEV's with static charging points are not the way the technology is going to end up. My worry is that those who invest in such basic charging technology in a rush now, will not be ready for the next developments - and with our populations the sizes that they are now and our reliance on transportation systems, it's a whole different ballgame to when the petrol/diesel supply infrastructure was "built".

The more I think about it, your Blackberry analogy is hitting home !

Regarding car sales, SUV/truck and car sales were 17 million last year in the USA - the industry needs to make some pretty major strides forward if that demand is gong to be satisfied by BEV's which at the moment are only scratching the surface of vehicle demand. If Tesla sold 180,000 cars and they sold more than all of the others combined, then that's a very small proportion of the market, especially since the Govt have subsidising new BEV sales for over 10 years now.

In our market, the most basic Tesla EV costs £42,000 to buy - and my real question about the bubble bursting sales-wise is, how many car buyers can afford to buy one of those ? Cars over that value here are simply not bought by the "general population" and they are invariably used as second cars by the wealthier element of the motoring market. There is enough of a niche market in "green executive buyers" to support the current short term rate of sales growth, but unless something happens really quickly, that market will be become completely over-saturated and new sales will basically end. The "public" need an affordable Electric Car - at the moment, Electric Car sales are being driven by the more affluent niche of car buyers, not the "average" car buyer.

In the U.K., the Govt announced that that the sale of all ICE and hybrid cars will be banned from 2035 (with a push still to bring this forward to 2030) - if the US follows that route, how will this be possible, where will the investment to change so quickly come from?

Unfortunately, I can see the problem of having too many eggs in one basket and working with technology that is going to be rapidly out-dated - for me, now that you and Pat have got me thinking about it, investing for the longer term in something that has a market valuation so far above its performance is not a risk I'd really be wanting to take.

The future is definitely electric, I'm just not so sure it's Tesla.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on February 05, 2020, 01:38:53 AM
Dean, I saw this today about UK’s future plans:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/britain-ban-sale-new-gas-diesel-hybrid-cars-2035-n1129616 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/britain-ban-sale-new-gas-diesel-hybrid-cars-2035-n1129616)

It looks like Tesla will be ready with a 400 mile range sooner, rather than later..
https://www.engadget.com/2020/01/30/tesla-model-s-400-mile-range/ (https://www.engadget.com/2020/01/30/tesla-model-s-400-mile-range/)

Excepting the bare bones basic Model 3, all the other current crop of Tesla cars are too rich for my blood.

 Watch the VW group introduce a true EV Volkswagen. Things will get interesting when real competition enters the picture.

Bill, yea, I hear you.... Did you ever read Robert Heinlein’s “The Roads Must Roll”?  You grok?


Yes, Pat, that announcement has made big news over here, and it's  the first thing that has taken the public "shine" off Boris as the "people's" PM.

All of the current EV's are too expensive for the majority of the population to buy (I don't think there's even a Ford car for sale here that costs as much as the cheapest Tesla, except maybe for a Mustang). The Nissan Leaf costs twice as much as it's ICE equivalent, the Nissan Micra.

When the big players really get into affordable EV manufacture (and I firmly believe they will), I worry that Tesla will be left out in the cold with an overpriced product in a low price commodity market.

My other worry is, where are all of the batteries going to come from to not only sustain annual sales of 17 million cars, but also all of the other Battery Power Storage systems being touted for household use - and what of the earths resources are going to be destroyed to get at the rare minerals required for these.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Bill_Rockoff on February 05, 2020, 04:43:12 AM
UK market (or other European country of your choice as a substitute) is the size of (insert mid-size US state here) with the population of (other US state.) The problems, and the possible solutions, are not the same. My first ever dip into the Internet world of FJ thr international FJ Brotherhood involved the difference in size between the UK and the US, vis a vis “highway pegs for an FJ.” To wit: i had just ridden further in a day in one direction  than a British rider could do without a passport and a ferry (or the Chunnel) and the things we need solutions for in the US aren’t typically a problem for you over there. Battery range is a lot less of a factor for you, just because most of your public transportation evolved to serve a larger percentage of your population and your distances are less of an obstacle for a 120km range.

Similarly, your government is (for now) a bit less beholden to the whims of its electorate than ours. If your government decides “don’t know what you’re going to do instead, but you can’t keep burning diesel to get around, either find another way or don’t go” then you-all will either find anither way, or you won’t go. (And my money is on you finding another way, which in my view  is one of the things that truly makes a society great.)  The third option is “fire them and hire someone else who will tell you it’s okay to keep doing what you want.” You are closer to that than I recall you being in my lifetime. But who am I to talk, my country has basically fired its triathlon-competing personal trainer and hired a guy who tells us we are already the biggest and strongest, so of course we can keep eating hamberdere and have two scoops of ice cream instead of just one, and that exercise uses up our finite supply of bodily energy so we shouldn’t exercise.

Initially, *all* cars were luxury purchases. Same with computers.

To br realistic, the current petro distribution scheme is also highly subsidized. The US has an enormous military spend, and an awful lot of it 1) serves  as a reliable energy customer, giving economies of scale, and 2) implements foreign policy to make sure the oil business stays in business. Our infrastructure for public transportation in the US isn’t bad because we are dumb here, it’s bad because we grew in a manner that benefited from / demanded Private vehicle ownership. And the folks who stood to profit from that were only too happy to pitch in and help tear up the public streetcars and repave the roads to help drive demand. if we decided that “battery powered cars, and the ectrical power capacity to run them” were as important to us as a twenty year war on terror and a thirty year war on drugs, you better roll up your pants because you will be knee deep in silent cars within Dick Cheney’s lifetime.

If Elon is smart (and “all signs point to Yes” to quote  the Magic 8 Ball) his next round of investment will be in US politics. It’s one thing to solve problems, but getting to help decide what constitutes a problem that needs to be solved is next-level business strategy. The US auto industry got successive lifetimes of profitability because they got to fund development of a road infrastructure versus rail infrastructure.

Then again, maybe he’s playing the longer game and is already investing in Chinese manufacturing and politics. In which case, it seems like quite a ride for a few years to come, because that’s a whole different set of problems, and solving those may not be profitable at all because that economy (like Russia’s) has a LOT of money in it, but a completely different set of rules than we are used to. Think “master builder who builds the most beautiful church the world has ever seen, and then has his eyes put out by the clergy  afterwards so he can never build a nicer one” levels of “what the fuck?” anathema to our expectations of fairness.

Pardon the ramblings, it’s the wee hours here and I’m multi tasking.

This would be a great bunch of stuff to discuss around campfires with motorcycles in the background and beer / booze in the foreground.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: ribbert on February 05, 2020, 08:36:45 AM
I don’t believe the electric cars being touted now are the future, their development is just an exercise in being seen to be green, something that has become an indispensable part of govt and big business if they wish to remain in power and stay in business. The achievements are not as important as the targets, just be on the green wagon, set impossible but publicly popular targets, make all the right noises about a renewables only future, shut down anything that has the word “coal” in it, mention wind and solar and at every opportunity and everyone’s happy. The govt will get voted in the companies will sell product.

Elon Musk, amongst other things, is a salesman and what he’s flogging is what govt’s and business know are essential to their survival, to be seen to embrace a renewables future. Taking nothing away from the guy’s significant achievements, I see a lot of “smoke and mirrors” about his business, the showmanship financing the research.

Most of the world has embraced the idea of a clean future, a noble pursuit indeed but business’s looking for customer approval and govt’s keen to curry favour with the voters, are setting targets way ahead of the technology needed to achieve them. We are not talking about further development of existing technology here but stuff that hasn’t even been invented or discovered.

As has been alluded to by others, where do the materials for billions of huge batteries come from, what about disposal, what about manufacturing emissions, what about the national fleet all wanting to charge their cars around the same time when they get home from work when your only power is wind and solar, charging times etc. We are a very long way from getting rid of fossil fuel cars, planes and ships.

We have the world's biggest Lithium-ion (Tesla) battery here. It is charged by renewable (wind) energy. Last year in a grid power failure, it came on line in 140 milliseconds. According to the govt, which has a vested interest in embellishing it's performance, it provided power for 30,000 homes for 10 mins. Keep in mind, average daytime power use in homes is very low. That doesn't seem like much of a return for $50 million but it is exactly the sort of project that keeps the doors open and maintains his pin up boy status. I don't reckon the govt would let him go broke.

(https://www.abc.net.au/news/image/10326426-3x2-700x467.jpg)

This for you Pat, I know you love this stuff.

I believe the electric vehicles of the future (in the absence of some other means of powering them) will be more about changing how we get around and what we get around in rather than discovering alternate ways to power vehicles as we currently use them.
Only changing the propulsion system of a current day motor car seems like a very short sighted goal. I think the car as we know it is doomed (based on known technology) as is how we use them.

Noel

Usual disclaimers apply, it's only my opinion and yes Pat, I know, I don't own one so I don't know what I'm talking about......



Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on February 05, 2020, 10:46:30 AM
..... Watch the VW group introduce a true EV Volkswagen.
Things will get interesting when real competition enters the picture.....

....When the big players really get into affordable EV manufacture (and I firmly believe they will), I worry that Tesla will be left out in the cold with an overpriced product in a low price commodity market....

Bingo! ^^^^ I give Tesla another 2 years before the VW group smokes them....just a hunch.

Dean, I’m gonna follow your wife’s advice sooner rather than later.
I have already recouped double my initial Tesla investment, so today I am playing with house money.
Crazy times indeed....


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: T Legg on February 05, 2020, 12:30:00 PM
It's too bad Pat. Everyone's negative opinion caused Tesla's stock to drop 18% this morning. This site has a lot of influence.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on February 05, 2020, 05:40:41 PM
Your geography is right Bill, the U.K. Is only the size of some US states, but with a population of over 65 million, we're a market of around 1/5th of the size of the USA, whereas in land mass terms we're about 1/50th.

We are still a "big" market for the car makers - and in terms of business mileage, our employees tend to drive a lot further per person, than in the USA. Because everything "seems" so close, and other transportation modes are so expensive, we tend to drive a lot more for business travel than we ideally should, and than others do in other countries.

We're also, as you can imagine a very densely populated country, with much higher average traffic densities than the vast majority of the USA and having to stop for "extended" re-charging times (compared to a 5 minute fuel fill-up) is a major dis-incentive for business users.

Indeed, my employer won a very long term "service" contract, and after the award, we were asked to switch to using BEV's for all of our small vans (which were the majority of our fleet) to improve their "environmental credibility", with the customer expecting "savings", but agreeing to cover any extra costs should they be incurred. We did so and we started to operate using all BEV vans, but when the first results came in, the customer was horrified at the cost increases because the contract was to run a 24 hour service, albeit in a small geographic area. With each van covering around 350 miles per day, this means a minimum of 3 charging periods for each day per van (at 6 hours per charge), which obviously meant that we couldn't provide the service without more than doubling the number of vans we used - as they were spending so much time recharging rather than operating. The customer wanted chapter and verse on the costs, which we gave them, which they understood and within 6 months we were asked to prepare a costed plan to switch back to diesel powered vehicles. By the end of the first year of the contract, all of the BEV's had been returned and we were operating with less than half the previous fleet number. That was a very sobering experience for me, as I had been championing BEV's (as instructed by my employer, who saw significant marketing benefits from offering "green alternative" solutions) and had become a bit of an advocate, based on all of the supplier information. Unfortunately, a lot of the "data" for BEV's on range, costs and charging times is based on use in specific "ideal" situations, which are not really clarified to buyers up front.

As has been said elsewhere on here, BEV's are one "cleaner" option, but if we really want to make great strides then we need to look further than just replacing ICE engines with electric motors and batteries - and politics and policies designed to maintain political success (and tenure if office) seem to be pushing us that way and are often at odds with REAL progress.

Again, like your analogy of the Blackberry, unless they really move forward, Tesla will be just be playing in the periphery with a "simple/limited" solution, while someone else corners the bulk market with real innovations.

I love discussing this topic and truly hope to sit by the campfire with you at a FJ Rally some time in the near future (in the next 5 years) and chew the fat over this - I think we have so much common ground that we could have a really good and enjoyable discussion.

Next time I'm out on an Oset, I'll get some photo's to post - they truly are awesome machines for what they are and I love the fact that they are so quiet and so tractable in off-road, countryside use.


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: PaulG on February 05, 2020, 10:38:25 PM

My other worry is, where are all of the batteries going to come from to not only sustain annual sales of 17 million cars, but also all of the other Battery Power Storage systems being touted for household use - and what of the earths resources are going to be destroyed to get at the rare minerals required for these.

Bolivia  https://wccftech.com/bolivias-massive-reserves-of-lithium-are-about-to-become-available-to-western-companies/ (https://wccftech.com/bolivias-massive-reserves-of-lithium-are-about-to-become-available-to-western-companies/)

That coup wasn't about "democracy".  They have upwards of 70%  of known lithium reserves.  They were negotiating with western companies for mining contracts, the corporations didn't like the terms. So Morales signed with the Chinese.  Literally the next day the army came into the picture.

IMO If they can extract this at a reasonable cost, any newer power sources will be put on the back burner until every last $$ can be stripped out of it.  That's usually how the game goes.  Instead of oil power politics, the new kid on the block will be lithium power politics. After that... who knows?

Don't want to turn this into a debate. Just wanted to expand the picture a bit.

Even in a perfect world if the majority of power sources were electrified this will not stop oil production.  Look around your house/work and see what items are the result of oil refining like plastics, rubber, teflon, fabrics, etc.  Take oil out of the picture and see how much of it would disappear.  How much of your car would be left over for example?

The elimination of fossil fuels is only a small part of the equation.  How society consumes, creates, lives, travels etc. will need to undergo a massive transformation.  Not just physically but psychologically and emotionally. Something bigger than even the industrial revolution of the 18th &19th centuries. 

At the moment I don't think we're capable of that.  Unless Thanos appears and snaps his fingers.  :diablo:

Too much time on my hands at work... :pardon:


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on February 06, 2020, 09:52:23 AM
And just think of the environmental damage mining that lithium is going to do, especially considering the amount of other material that has to be “mined” to get at the lithium - and similarly for all the cobalt that’s needed which is  only available in the quantities we’ll need in the future (for BEV’s) from the ocean floor !!!

There is unfortunately no easy answer - but at least as it’s Bolivia, the rest of the world won’t care as long as they get their lithium  :sarcastic: (I’m pretty sure that’s the sarcasm emoji !)


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: PaulG on February 07, 2020, 01:14:42 PM
Don't want to go down a rabbit hole, but I seem to be constantly reminded of the classic movie Three Days Of The Condor.  Especially the final scene between Robert Redford and Cliff Robertson (one of my favourite actors from a bygone era )

https://youtu.be/1XKFQVJlmZY (https://youtu.be/1XKFQVJlmZY)


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on February 12, 2020, 08:20:30 PM
Pat, I'd hold onto that Tesla stock. The guy isn't in the "electric car" business, the guy is in the "energy storage and management" business, and Tesla is where Ford was 100 years ago.....

The guy is in the “energy storage” business.... A good call for sustaining EV production according to this article:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-batteries-vertical-integration-proven-right/ (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-batteries-vertical-integration-proven-right/)
I didn't know the other EV guys were struggling with battery production.

Glad to see TSLA stock settle down...


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Millietant on February 13, 2020, 01:25:40 AM
I think the website name gives away the potential for a slight bias in its reporting Pat  :biggrin: - "Teslarati"


Title: Re: What a trip
Post by: Pat Conlon on February 13, 2020, 01:40:47 AM
Yea Dean, I caught that, definitely pro Tesla,  but I didn’t know about the battery supply issues Jaguar and Mercedes experienced. Tesla’s investment in battery production now makes me think that their lead in the EV arena will be longer than I thought.

This validates Bill Rockoff’s astute observation he made 2 years ago.... it’s not about EV’s, it’s about batteries.

Good call Bill :good: